By Karim Were
Uganda’s President joins regional leaders in Lamu for the launch of a 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery expected to reshape East Africa’s energy and industrial landscape
President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has departed Uganda for Mokowe in Lamu County, Kenya, where he is expected to join President William Ruto and other African leaders for the groundbreaking of the planned Dangote East Africa Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals Special Economic Zone (SEZ).
The groundbreaking ceremony, taking place on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, marks the formal start of a project estimated at about $16 billion, with a planned refining capacity of 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day. The facility is expected to supply refined petroleum products to Kenya and neighbouring countries, including Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Museveni’s participation places Uganda at the centre of discussions surrounding one of the largest planned industrial and energy investments in East Africa. The project is being developed by Nigerian industrialist Aliko Dangote and is intended to reduce the region’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products while expanding local processing and petrochemical production.
The ceremony has attracted several African heads of state and senior government officials. Reports from Kenya indicate that Rwanda’s Paul Kagame, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Burundi’s Évariste Ndayishimiye and other leaders are among those attending or expected to attend alongside Ruto and Museveni.
A major regional refining project
The Dangote East Africa Petroleum Refinery is planned as a large integrated industrial facility combining crude-oil refining with petrochemical activities and related infrastructure.
At full capacity, the refinery would process up to 700,000 barrels of crude oil each day. Its proposed scale would make it one of the largest refining facilities on the African continent and significantly increase East Africa’s capacity to process crude within the region rather than importing finished petroleum products.
Reuters reported that the project is scheduled for completion in 2030 and is designed to address East Africa’s heavy reliance on imported fuel. The project is also expected to support wider industrial development through petrochemicals and other downstream industries.
The refinery is being developed around the Lamu Port area, which forms part of Kenya’s broader Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor.
Its location gives the project access to a major deep-water port and potentially provides a strategic gateway for receiving crude and distributing petroleum products across East Africa.
Kenyan officials have described the investment as an important opportunity to strengthen the country’s position as a regional energy and industrial hub.
Museveni and Uganda’s interest in regional refining
Museveni’s attendance is also significant because Uganda has been pursuing its own oil-refining strategy while simultaneously supporting broader regional energy cooperation.
In May 2026, Museveni held discussions with Dangote at State Lodge Nakasero on the possibility of establishing a major regional refinery.
During that meeting, Museveni said Uganda was prepared to support the initiative and potentially acquire shares because of the importance of regional integration and industrial development.
“We shall support Mr. Dangote, and we are ready to buy shares in the regional refinery because our goal is regional integration and industrial development,” Museveni said at the time.
The President has consistently argued that African countries should process more of their raw materials locally rather than exporting them in unprocessed form.
That position is particularly relevant to Uganda, which is developing its own petroleum resources in the Albertine Graben and is also involved in the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), which is designed to transport crude from Hoima to the Tanzanian port of Tanga.
Museveni has maintained that Uganda’s planned refinery in Hoima remains strategically important, even as the country participates in discussions around larger regional energy projects.
Potential market for Uganda’s petroleum products
Uganda currently depends heavily on imported refined petroleum products to meet domestic demand.
Much of the country’s petroleum products are brought through the Kenyan coastal corridor, making developments in Kenya’s petroleum infrastructure particularly important to Uganda.
A large refinery in Lamu could therefore have implications for Uganda’s future fuel supply chain.
The facility is expected to target several East African markets, potentially creating an alternative source of petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and other petroleum products.
People Daily reported that the proposed refinery is expected to supply Kenya and neighbouring countries, including Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
For Uganda, regional access to refined products could potentially reduce some logistical pressures associated with importing finished fuel from overseas markets.
However, the actual economic benefit will depend on the refinery’s eventual production costs, transportation arrangements, crude supply, regional demand and commercial agreements.
Crude supply remains a major question
Despite the project’s enormous proposed capacity, questions remain over how the refinery will secure sufficient crude oil to operate at or near 700,000 barrels per day.
Kenya’s own crude production is expected to remain far below the refinery’s planned capacity. The country’s South Lokichar oil development in Turkana is projected to increase production, but not to levels sufficient to feed the proposed refinery on its own.
This means the facility would have to rely substantially on crude sourced from outside Kenya.
That could potentially include crude from other African producers, depending on infrastructure, commercial agreements and transportation economics.
Uganda is particularly relevant in this discussion because it has substantial crude resources in the Albertine region. However, Uganda’s crude export arrangements are linked to EACOP and the Tanzanian port of Tanga.
The ability to move crude economically to Lamu would therefore require additional infrastructure and commercial arrangements.
These issues are among the factors that will determine whether the refinery can consistently operate at its planned capacity.
Project promises jobs and industrial investment
The refinery is also being promoted as more than a fuel-processing facility.
Dangote and Kenyan authorities have presented it as an anchor investment capable of attracting additional industries to Lamu and creating employment throughout the construction and operational phases.
Reuters reported that the wider project could create more than 50,000 jobs, while other reports have cited an estimated 60,000 employment opportunities during construction and associated activities.
The petrochemical component could be particularly important because petrochemical products serve as inputs for manufacturing, packaging, construction, agriculture and other industries.
If successfully developed, the SEZ around the refinery could attract manufacturers that rely on petroleum and petrochemical feedstocks, potentially creating a wider industrial ecosystem.
Dangote has also argued that the investment could encourage additional businesses to establish operations around Lamu once the refinery and supporting infrastructure are in place.
Regional value addition
For East Africa, one of the central arguments behind the project is value addition.
For decades, many African economies have exported crude oil and other raw materials while importing refined products and manufactured goods.
The Lamu refinery is being positioned as part of an effort to reverse that pattern by increasing the amount of processing carried out within Africa.
This approach aligns with Museveni’s longstanding argument that African countries need to industrialise and add value to their natural resources.
The Ugandan President said during his May meeting with Dangote that regional cooperation could make large infrastructure and industrial projects more viable.
“If East Africa works together, these projects become more viable and beneficial to all our people,” Museveni said.
The proposed refinery could therefore become an important test of whether East African countries can combine their crude resources, markets, infrastructure and investment capacity around a common industrial project.
Lamu’s strategic importance
The choice of Lamu also has broader geopolitical and economic implications.
The port is a key component of Kenya’s LAPSSET corridor, which is intended to connect the Kenyan coast with parts of northern Kenya and landlocked countries in the region.
A major refinery located near the port could increase the economic importance of Lamu by generating demand for port services, storage, transportation, engineering, construction and logistics.
The project could also strengthen Kenya’s ambitions to become an important energy and industrial gateway for the wider region.
At the same time, Tanzania and Uganda are pursuing their own energy infrastructure strategies, meaning the refinery enters an increasingly competitive regional petroleum landscape.
Recent analysis has highlighted emerging competition between Lamu, Tanzania’s Tanga corridor and Uganda’s planned refinery at Hoima as East African countries seek greater control over petroleum refining, storage and transportation.
Legal and environmental concerns
The project is not without challenges.
A Kenyan court has been asked to address a land dispute involving residents who have raised concerns over land rights and the development of the refinery site.
Reuters reported that a Kenyan court ruling concerning a land-rights dispute could affect some site activities, although Dangote said the legal proceedings would not prevent the groundbreaking ceremony from going ahead.
The project has also attracted scrutiny from environmental and conservation groups because of Lamu’s sensitive coastal environment and the area’s cultural significance.
The concerns underline the need for the developers and authorities to balance industrial development with environmental protection, lawful land acquisition and the interests of communities living around the project.
For such a large investment, community participation and compliance with environmental and land laws will be important to maintaining public confidence and avoiding prolonged disruptions.
Implications for Uganda’s refinery plans
The Lamu project also places renewed attention on Uganda’s proposed refinery at Kabaale in Hoima.
Uganda’s planned refinery has a much smaller proposed capacity of about 60,000 barrels per day, but the government has argued that domestic refining remains strategically important.
The EastAfrican reported earlier this month that Uganda’s final investment decision for the Hoima refinery had been pushed towards the first quarter of 2027, subject to engineering, commercial and regulatory milestones. (The EastAfrican)
The two projects do not necessarily have to be viewed as mutually exclusive.
Uganda’s refinery could primarily support domestic demand and provide strategic value for an oil-producing country, while the much larger Lamu refinery could operate as a regional facility serving several markets.
However, the projects will inevitably compete for regional petroleum markets, investment and potentially crude supplies.
Their coexistence could ultimately depend on how East African countries coordinate infrastructure and energy policies.
A new chapter for East African energy
The groundbreaking in Lamu represents more than the beginning of construction of a refinery.
It reflects a wider effort by African countries and investors to strengthen regional energy security, increase industrial production and reduce dependence on imported manufactured products.
For Uganda, Museveni’s participation demonstrates the country’s interest in shaping regional petroleum and industrial cooperation while continuing with its own oil-development plans.
For Kenya, the project could strengthen Lamu’s role as an energy and logistics hub and attract additional industrial investment.
For Dangote Group, the refinery represents a major expansion beyond its Nigerian operations and an opportunity to replicate its refining model in another major African market.
But the project’s ultimate success will depend on more than its proposed 700,000-barrel capacity. Reliable crude supplies, financing, infrastructure, environmental compliance, community relations and sustained regional demand will all determine whether the refinery delivers its promised economic transformation.
As construction begins, East African governments will be watching closely to see whether the investment can translate its enormous scale into lower energy-import dependence, new industries, jobs and greater regional value addition.
If those objectives are achieved, the Lamu refinery could become one of the most significant energy and industrial projects in East Africa in decades.
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